On April 15, 2026, the Federal Reserve published its latest Beige Book — the report that compiles anecdotal economic information from businesses and contacts across all 12 Federal Reserve districts. The finding was unambiguous: the Iran war is creating pervasive uncertainty across virtually every industry in the United States.
This isn’t opinion. This isn’t partisan analysis. This is the Federal Reserve’s own field report, compiled from direct conversations with businesses across the country. And the picture is ugly.
Most sectors grew only slightly in late February and March. Concerns about the Iran war and energy supply disruptions “pervaded virtually every industry from agriculture to transportation.” Most contacts said if the conflict lasts long, they will need to revisit plans for pricing and investment. Fertilizer prices surged because supplies were constricted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Fuel costs increased. Shipping surcharges spiked. Consumer-facing firms absorbed costs rather than risk losing customers.
The Specifics
Farmers faced significant profit margin pressure from high input costs, especially surging fertilizer prices. Cotton margins were squeezed as fertilizer producers refused to even provide quotes until delivery — because they couldn’t predict their own costs with the Strait of Hormuz closed. When your suppliers won’t quote you a price, that’s not uncertainty. That’s an economy in a holding pattern.
Shipping and transportation costs rose across the board. The Hormuz closure disrupted global trade routes, and the cost of that disruption is being passed through every link in the supply chain.
Consumer-facing businesses reported absorbing cost increases rather than raising prices further — not out of generosity, but because consumers are already stretched. Pricing power varied: specialized business-to-business firms could pass costs through. Grocery stores and restaurants could not.
Meanwhile, the labor market held steady at 207,000 weekly jobless claims. But the Fed’s own Beige Book makes clear: if the war continues, hiring plans get revisited, investment plans get shelved, and the modest growth the economy is still managing could evaporate.
The Disconnect
The administration says the war is “very close to over.” The Fed says businesses across the country are freezing plans because they don’t know when it will end. One of those two things is a lie. The Federal Reserve doesn’t compile field reports from 12 districts to make political points. It does it to understand what is actually happening. And what is actually happening is that an unauthorized war is corroding the American economy from the inside out.
Sources
- Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta: Beige Book April 2026; “pervasive” war-related uncertainty; most sectors grew only slightly; fertilizer prices surging; shipping surcharges; businesses revisiting pricing and investment plans. April 15, 2026.
- Saxo Bank Market Quick Take: Beige Book says Iran war is major source of uncertainty for US firms; weekly jobless claims at 207,000; dollar heading for second straight weekly loss. April 17, 2026.
- Federal Reserve: Full Beige Book report; 12-district compilation of economic conditions. April 15, 2026.