On March 23, at 6:49 AM EST, traders placed over $500 million in crude oil futures bets — at nine times the average volume for that hour — predicting a drop in oil prices and a rise in equity markets. Fifteen minutes later, Trump posted on Truth Social announcing a pause in strikes against Iran. Oil prices fell more than 10 percent. Whoever made those trades made an enormous amount of money. Rep. Ritchie Torres called it potentially the largest instance of insider trading in American history. The SEC spokesperson declined comment. The CFTC did not respond.
Then it happened again. On April 7, as Trump was publicly threatening to wipe out a civilization and Iran had given no public indication it would agree to a ceasefire, at least 50 brand-new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket placed substantial, highly specific bets on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire. Those accounts had never placed any other bets. They were created hours before the announcement. They made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. The ceasefire was announced that evening.
The White House Knew
The White House Management Office sent a staff-wide email on March 24 — the day after the first suspicious trades — warning staff not to make prediction market bets related to the Iran war. The White House confirmed the email was sent. The administration's spokesman said "all federal employees are barred from trading or placing bets on inside information" and called implications of wrongdoing "baseless." But think about what that email means: the White House sent a warning because the pattern was obvious enough that they had to address it internally. You don't send that email if there's no problem. You send it because there's a problem you're trying to get ahead of.
"What kind of trader would make a massive trade at 6:49 AM, 15 minutes before a market-moving presidential announcement with billions of dollars at stake and without a hedge? The only plausible answer to that question is an insider trader. Any other alternative is a statistical impossibility." Torres sent letters to the SEC and CFTC demanding formal investigations. The SEC declined to comment. The CFTC did not respond. Both agencies are led by Trump appointees.
The Pattern Goes Way Beyond Iran
Harvard researchers published a paper last month estimating that $143 million in profits had been made on Polymarket by individuals who potentially had insider information across multiple events — not just Iran — including the Taylor Swift engagement and the Nobel Peace Prize. In January, an anonymous Polymarket user made a $400,000 profit by betting that Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro would be removed from office, hours before it happened. The same pattern, repeated, across the Trump administration's major geopolitical moves: someone always seems to know first.
Senator Elizabeth Warren and Senator Sheldon Whitehouse wrote to the CFTC noting that "the same pattern appears to have recurred" around the April 7 ceasefire announcement. Sen. Richard Blumenthal sent a letter to Polymarket directly, calling it "an illicit market to sell and exploit national security secrets unlike any in history." Even Republicans have called for bans. Rep. Blake Moore said he doesn't "want to imagine a world where America's adversaries use prediction markets to anticipate our next move." There are bipartisan bills in both chambers. Nothing has passed.
Someone knew the Iran pause was coming. Someone knew the ceasefire was coming. The White House sent a warning email the next day. The regulators haven't done a thing. This is what corruption looks like when the people in charge of investigating it work for the person doing it.
The Regulatory Problem
The CFTC under Trump's hand-picked chair Michael Selig has embraced looser regulation of prediction markets and says monitoring for insider activity "largely resides with the licensees" — meaning Polymarket is supposed to police itself. Kalshi and Polymarket both announced tighter insider trading rules the same day as the March 23 suspicious trades. That's not a coincidence either. And it's not accountability. It's two companies trying to preempt the story.
The SEC and CFTC have the authority to investigate this. They have not opened public investigations. The people demanding accountability — Torres, Warren, Whitehouse, Blumenthal, McGovern — are all Democrats. Republicans are either silent or mildly critical of prediction markets in general, without directing any scrutiny at the specific trades tied to Trump administration announcements. The pattern is there. The evidence is there. The will to act is not.
Sources
- CNBC: Torres letters to SEC and CFTC; $500M+ oil futures 15 minutes before announcement; nine times average volume; Torres quote on statistical impossibility; SEC decline to comment.
- CNBC: White House staff warning email; White House spokesman statement; 50 new Polymarket accounts on ceasefire bet; Warren and Whitehouse letter; CFTC chair Selig deregulatory stance.
- NPR: Harvard paper $143M in Polymarket insider profits; Maduro $400K bet; Blumenthal letter to Polymarket; Rep. Moore quote on adversaries; bipartisan bills in both chambers.
- TIME: April 7 Polymarket accounts detail; ceasefire timing context; White House staff warning confirmed.