For months before the 2022 midterm elections, the narrative was set: a red wave was coming. Inflation was high. Biden’s approval was low. Historical patterns predicted massive Republican gains. And Donald Trump had personally endorsed a slate of candidates who would carry MAGA into every statehouse, Senate seat, and governor’s mansion that mattered.
The red wave didn’t happen.
The Losses
In race after race, Trump’s hand-picked candidates — almost all of whom had embraced election denialism as a core platform — lost to Democrats in competitive contests:
Kari Lake (Arizona Governor): Ran as the loudest election denier in the country. Called the 2020 election “stolen” at every rally. Lost to Katie Hobbs. Refused to concede. Filed lawsuits. Lost those too.
Doug Mastriano (Pennsylvania Governor): Attended January 6. Organized buses to the Capitol. Lost to Josh Shapiro by 15 points.
Mehmet Oz (Pennsylvania Senate): Celebrity TV doctor, Trump-endorsed, didn’t even live in the state. Lost to John Fetterman, who campaigned while recovering from a stroke and still won by 5 points.
Blake Masters (Arizona Senate): Peter Thiel-funded, Trump-endorsed. Lost to Mark Kelly in a state Republicans expected to flip.
Don Bolduc (New Hampshire Senate): Called the 2020 election “stolen,” then tried to walk it back two days after winning the primary. Lost to Maggie Hassan.
Herschel Walker (Georgia Senate): Trump’s personal pick. Multiple scandals including paying for abortions while running as pro-life. Lost to Raphael Warnock in a December runoff, 51.4%–48.6%.
The Scoreboard
Democrats held the Senate and actually gained a seat (going from 50+VP to 51-49 after Warnock’s runoff win). Republicans took the House — but by the slimmest margin in 20 years, gaining just 9 seats when analysts had predicted 25 to 40. It was the best midterm performance for a president’s party since 2002.
The contrast was stark: Republican candidates who distanced themselves from Trump performed well. Brian Kemp won re-election as Georgia governor by 8 points — the same state where Walker, Trump’s pick, lost. Mike DeWine won Ohio by 25 points. The MAGA brand was a drag on every competitive ticket it touched.
Why It Matters
The 2022 midterms were the clearest test of whether election denialism was a winning platform. The answer was no. Voters in swing states rejected candidates who ran on the Big Lie. The “stolen election” message that dominated Trump rallies didn’t translate into votes where it counted. And the Dobbs decision — which energized Democratic turnout in every state with abortion on the ballot — showed that actions have electoral consequences, even if they don’t have legal ones.
Bottom Line
Trump endorsed over 200 candidates in 2022. In safe red districts, they won. In every competitive race that mattered, they lost. The red wave narrative was built on the assumption that voters were angry at Biden. They were. But they were more afraid of what MAGA was offering. Election denial, abortion bans, and fealty to Trump turned out to be a losing platform in every swing state. The lesson was obvious. The party ignored it. Two years later, they nominated him again.
Sources
- Politico: “The red wave that wasn’t: 5 takeaways,” November 9, 2022.
- Associated Press: 2022 midterm results analysis and election denier losses.
- New York Times: 2022 election results tracker with race-by-race data.
- FiveThirtyEight: Election denier candidate performance in 2022 midterms.