Today is Tax Day. 150 million Americans are filing returns. And the White House wants you to know your refund is bigger. Average refund: up 11% from last year. The standard deduction went to $31,500 for married couples. There’s a senior bonus deduction worth up to $6,000. The SALT cap went back up to $40,000. Tips and overtime are deductible now. The One Big Beautiful Act, signed on the Fourth of July, is doing what Republicans promised: putting money back in your pocket.
Now open your wallet and check what’s actually in it.
The Numbers They Don’t Want Next to Each Other
Gasoline is running above $4 per gallon nationally. The Associated Press reported on April 10 that the United States just experienced the largest monthly jump in gas prices in six decades. Not since the 1960s has the price of filling your tank moved this fast in a single month. Gas alone drove CPI inflation to a 2.4% increase in just the two months since February. Beef is up over 15%. Airfare is up nearly 15%. Electricity is up close to 5%.
Your 11% bigger refund didn’t cover the gas bill. It didn’t cover groceries. And it sure as hell didn’t cover the compounding cost of a war that didn’t need to happen.
This Is War-Driven Inflation
The White House wants to treat inflation as a random weather event. “Gas and energy prices are seeing volatility,” a spokesperson said. Volatility. As if the Strait of Hormuz closed itself. As if Iran shut down a fifth of global oil transit because of sunspots.
This inflation has an author. On February 28, 2026, the United States began military operations against Iran. Within days, Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping. Oil prices skyrocketed. Gas followed. Everything that moves by truck — which is everything — got more expensive. The Federal Reserve, which had been planning rate cuts in 2026, is now weighing rate increases because war-driven energy costs are threatening to spill into the broader economy.
Before the war, the Federal Reserve was confident it could cut interest rates in 2026. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said the war is driving up oil and fuel prices “in ways that could fuel inflation and make rate cuts harder or impossible.” Core inflation — stripping out food and energy — held at 2.6%, but the risk is that energy costs bleed into everything else. If they do, rates go up, not down. Mortgages get more expensive. Credit cards cost more. The economy slows.
He Ran on This
Donald Trump won in 2024 in large part because Americans were angry about prices. He promised to fix inflation. He promised lower gas prices. He promised lower grocery costs on Day One. He promised no new wars. He delivered none of it.
Gas is $4.11. He ran on gas prices. Beef is up 15%. He ran on grocery prices. He started a war he promised he’d never start. And his approval rating on the economy is 31% — according to CNN polling, the lowest of either term. Among independents, it’s 22%. His overall approval has dropped to 35%, with 59% disapproval on Fox’s own polling — the highest disapproval of either term.
“An observer who did not know when DOGE started could not identify it.” — Cato Institute analysis of federal spending, which actually increased in 2025
Who Actually Benefits
The SALT cap increase to $40,000 overwhelmingly benefits high-income homeowners in high-tax states. The tip and overtime deductions are capped at $25,000 and $12,500 respectively — real money for workers who earn it, but a fraction of the bill’s total cost. The “Trump Accounts” for children — a $1,000 government contribution invested in the stock market — are novel but won’t help anyone for 18 years. The biggest line items in the One Big Beautiful Act are extensions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions that were already in effect — meaning most Americans aren’t seeing new cuts, they’re seeing the same ones not expire.
Meanwhile: the war costs money. The defense budget request is the largest in decades. Non-defense domestic spending is being cut 10% across the board. DOGE promised $2 trillion in savings and delivered, by the most generous estimate, $215 billion — while government spending actually increased in 2025. The deficit has not improved. The national debt continues to climb.
Bottom Line
Happy Tax Day. Your refund is 11% bigger. Your gas is 19% more expensive. Your groceries cost more. Your airfare costs more. Your electricity costs more. The war he started is driving the inflation he promised to fix, and the tax cuts he passed aren’t keeping up. He ran on your wallet. Check it.
Sources
- Politico: Largest monthly gas price jump in 60 years, CPI data, core inflation at 2.6%, energy-driven spike, White House response.
- PBS NewsHour: Tax Day analysis — average refund up 11%, standard deduction changes, SALT cap, tips/overtime deductions, Andrew Duehren/NYT context.
- MSNBC/The Weekend: April 15, 2026 broadcast — gas up 19% YoY, beef 15%, airfare 15%, electricity 5%, 31% economy approval, Congress silent during recess.
- Silver Bulletin: Net approval dropped from −13.4 to −16.3 since Iran War, all-time second-term low of −17.5.
- IRS: Full One Big Beautiful Bill tax provisions — standard deduction, SALT, tips, overtime, Trump Accounts, senior bonus.