White voters without a college degree gave Donald Trump his presidency. Twice. They were the demographic that flipped the Rust Belt in 2016 and held it in 2024, when 66% of them voted for him. They were the people at the rallies. The people who believed the tariffs would bring the jobs back. The people who thought he was fighting for them. According to CBS/YouGov polling conducted April 8–10, 2026, they no longer approve of his job performance. For the first time in his political career, Trump is underwater with the white working class.
February 2025: +36 net approval (68% approve, 32% disapprove)
September 2025: +26 (58% approve, 32% disapprove)
February 2026: +10 (55% approve, 45% disapprove)
April 8–10, 2026: −4 (48% approve, 52% disapprove)
Source: CBS/YouGov tracking poll, reported by The Daily Beast, April 13, 2026
Read those numbers again. In fourteen months, Trump went from a 36-point advantage to 4 points underwater with the voters who are supposed to be his floor. This isn’t erosion. This is structural failure. A building doesn’t lose 40 points of load-bearing capacity and stay standing.
It’s Not Just One Poll
The CBS/YouGov numbers are the most dramatic data point, but they aren’t isolated. CNN’s data analyst Harry Enten reported last month that Trump’s approval among working-class voters — broadly defined — has declined 26 points since November 2024. “The working-class voters are abandoning Donald Trump,” Enten said on air. “Those who have put him over the top in 2024 are saying, ‘You know what? Not for me right now.’”
A CNN/SSRS poll conducted in early April found that approval of Trump’s handling of the economy is the lowest it has been in either of his two terms, at 31%. One pollster called that a “five-alarm fire level number.” A separate Economist/YouGov poll from early March put Trump’s net job approval at −21 among all Americans — tied for his worst in either term — with 51% saying they strongly disapprove. First time that number has broken 50% in his career.
The Silver Bulletin polling average as of April 15 puts Trump at −16.3 net approval, having hit an all-time second-term low of −17.5 days earlier. Among independents, the Economist/YouGov poll recorded a net approval of −43. In his first term at this point, he was at −12 with independents. He has lost more than 30 points of independent support.
The Pollster Who Built MAGA’s Data Says MAGA Has Shrunk
Rich Baris runs Big Data Polls. He is a pro-Trump pollster. His operation has been tracking MAGA self-identification longer than anyone else. On March 17, appearing on The Charlie Kirk Show, Baris said what the White House doesn’t want anyone to hear: “The fact is MAGA has shrunk.”
“There’s a purification through subtraction going on, which I think is important for people to understand. And the people that have been subtracted are what I’m calling, like, you know, all the winning parts. The younger voters, the younger, especially Black men, Hispanics.” — Rich Baris, Big Data Polls, March 17, 2026
Baris went further. He said younger women had “slipped the most” in his recent polling. “Some of it had to deal with Epstein,” he said. “Some of the war. They don’t like the war.” An Economist/YouGov poll found that only 27% of all voters now describe themselves as MAGA supporters. Even among Trump 2024 voters, only 54% so identify. The movement that claimed to be a majority was never one. It was always a plurality that felt bigger because it was louder. Now it’s shrinking and they know it.
Why It’s Happening
The CBS/YouGov poll that produced the white non-college collapse also found that 64% of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of Iran. Fifty-one percent say rising gas prices from the war have been a financial hardship. Sixty-three percent say the economy is bad. Sixty-eight percent of Americans feel “worried” about the Iran war. Fifty-seven percent feel “stressed.” Fifty-four percent feel “angry.” Only 29% feel “proud.”
These aren’t abstract policy disputes. These are kitchen-table numbers. Gas is up. Groceries are up. Their kids are in the military or could be. The tariff regime that was supposed to bring back manufacturing has driven the effective U.S. tariff rate to 10.3% — from 2.2% at the start of 2025 — and the Yale Budget Lab estimates the average household is absorbing $570 to $600 in additional annual costs. The war nobody voted for is killing American troops. And the guy they elected to fix the economy is telling them everything’s fine while their grocery bill says otherwise.
What It Means for 2026
Baris tried to warn the right. “I tried to scream and yell for almost a year now about how to fix 2026,” he said on the Charlie Kirk Show. “There is still roughly an 18% chance historically that Republicans could turn it around.” An 18% chance. From the friendly pollster. The generic ballot has Democrats up 7 points. Republicans are widely expected to lose the House. The Senate, once assumed safe, is now in play.
A More in Common survey of over 18,000 Americans, including nearly 11,000 Trump 2024 voters, found that only 29% of Trump’s voters are “MAGA Hardliners.” Another 30% are “Mainline Republicans” who are equally Republican and Trump. Twenty percent are the “Reluctant Right” — a group where a scant majority even identifies as Republican and who voted Trump mainly because Harris seemed worse. These people are not riding or dying with this president. They are looking for the exit.
White non-college voters: +36 → −4 (CBS/YouGov, Feb 2025–Apr 2026)
Working-class voters broadly: −26 points since Nov 2024 (CNN/Enten)
Independents: −43 net approval (Economist/YouGov, Mar 2026)
Economy approval: 31% (CNN/SSRS, Apr 2026)
MAGA self-identification: 27% of all voters (Economist/YouGov)
Young women: “slipped the most” (Baris/Big Data Polls, Mar 2026)
The White House responded to Baris through spokesperson Olivia Wales, who called Trump “the unequivocal leader of the Republican party” and cited “a secure border, cooling inflation, working-class tax cuts, new trade deals.” The border is in a DHS funding standoff. Inflation is eating the tax cuts. The trade deals raised the tariff rate fivefold. But sure. Unequivocal leader.
Here is the part they can’t spin: 66% of white non-college voters chose Trump in November 2024. Fourteen months later, a majority of that same group says he’s doing a bad job. That is not a messaging problem. That is not media bias. That is people who voted for him looking at the results and saying: this is not what I voted for.
The question for November isn’t whether Republicans lose the House. The question is how many of them get dragged down by a president whose own base is running the math and coming up short.
Sources
- The Daily Beast: CBS/YouGov polling April 8–10, 2026 — Trump approval with white non-college voters collapsed from +36 (Feb 2025) to −4 (Apr 2026); 64% disapprove of Iran handling; 51% say gas prices are a financial hardship.
- The Daily Beast: Rich Baris of Big Data Polls said “MAGA has shrunk” on The Charlie Kirk Show; named younger voters, Black men, Hispanics, and younger women as the groups leaving; cited Epstein and the Iran war.
- The Bulwark: Economist/YouGov poll — 27% of all voters self-identify as MAGA; More in Common survey of 18,000+ Americans showing four distinct clusters of Trump voters, only 29% are Hardliners.
- YouGov: Trump hit −21 net job approval (Mar 2–3, 2026); 51% strongly disapprove (record); independents at −43 net approval; first time “strongly disapprove” exceeded 50%.
- Silver Bulletin: Trump net approval average at −16.3 as of April 15, 2026; all-time second-term low of −17.5 reached days earlier.
- Pivot (YouTube): Pollster describes Trump’s 31% economy approval (CNN/SSRS) as “five-alarm fire level”; overall approval at 35%.
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